2012-11-03
2012-11-03
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MSNBC 14
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CSPAN2 5
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KQED (PBS) 3
KRCB (PBS) 3
WMPT (PBS) 3
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English 95

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, the republican candidate was poppy bush. george h.w. bush. the day before the election that year he went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and then the next day, he lost pennsylvania. the next election, 1996, republican candidate was bob dole. right before the election, bob dole went and campaigned in pennsylvania. then bob dole lost pennsylvania. in 2004 the republican was president george w. bush and the day before the election, george w. bush went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and then the next day, george w. bush lost pennsylvania. last time around as well the sunday before the election, there's republican john mccain, campaigning in pennsylvania. and then john mccain loses pennsylvania. right before the election, you can set your watch by it. the republican presidential contender will go and campaign in pennsylvania. and every year the media responds by saying, wow the republican is going to pennsylvania. maybe the republicans are going to win pennsylvania this year. does this mean the republicans are planning on winning pennsylvania this year? and the republicans say, yes, we're go

the republican was george bush and the day before the election he went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and the next day, george bush lost pennsylvania. last time around as well the sunday before the election, there's john mccain campaigning in pennsylvania. and then john mccain loses pennsylvania. right before the election, you can set your watch by it. the republican presidential contender will go and campaign in pennsylvania. and every year the media responds by saying, wow the republican is going to pennsylvania. maybe the republicans are going to win pennsylvania this year. does this mean the republicans are planning on winning pennsylvania this year e. and the republicans say, yes, we're going there because we're going to win pennsylvania and they lose it every year. the reason they do this every year is because they want to be seen as super confident. they want to be seen as so confident they are expanding the map. they want to create the impression that they are going to win big. they don't need to go to the so-called battleground states. they have locked all those up. they hav

wants to return the rates to. and the 2000s which he did not mention when george bush followed the policies very similar to what mitt romney is proposing, they actually added more than 1 million fewer private sector jobs if george bush's first term than president obama has under his first term so i really do not think that the basic economics or the history says that just going back to deregulation and high rate-- high income rate cuts is the thing that leads to growth. >> brown: and do you think professor -- >> two decades of strong growth, we saw two decade, 80ous and 90s with extraordinary growth. economists called it the great moderation long boom and that's because the stable policies are put in place. tax reform, if you like, of 1986. a bipartisan reform president reagan worked with democrats in congress, that is the kind of thing we nude to get the strong economy back. >> back to you professor goolsbee, just this question about -- >> i agree with that i think tax reform and a grand bargain type budget deal if done in a balanced way would be a good achievement for both pa

kind of promise and the political sciences say george bush was the most polarized presidency. it's a condition of life and what obama's hoping is that republicans if he's re-elected sort of collapse a little bit in exhaustion and work with him in a short period of time. >> and regardless if it's a popular electoral split, it's going to be close. almost 50% of the country will feel disenchanted with whoever is elected. and the fault lines will be quite amazing. >> let's talk about where we were last week. it felt like there was momentum in mitt romney's direction. where are they tonight? >> there was some momentum still building off that successful denver debate. and then it sort of hit the reality of two more debates after that and the continuing campaign. and i think that this momentum was starting to slow before the hurricane hit. but certainly the hurricane had a piece of this. the fact that the president gets to look presidential. you had him up there with his bomber jacket in air force one. >> and chris christie of endorsed hip. -- hymn. >> -- endorsed him. >> we talk about

to return the rates to. and the 2000s which he did not mention when george bush followed the policies very similar to what mitt romney is proposing, they brief last word on that? >> well, i think as we are talking about four years what is going to happen the next four years. that say time where a president can make a tremendous difference. and we're talking about the past four years. and the president could have made auch betr policy with the unemployment being so high. >> brown: all right, john taylor and austan goolsbee, thanks so much. >> thank you >> brown: and if you're ready for more analysis on the jobs numbers, you'll find it, as always, on paul solman's "making sense" page online. >> woodruff: still to come on the newshour: misery in the aftermath of the super-storm; civilian deaths in syria; a spotlight on immigration in iowa; plus, shields and brooks. but first, the other news of the day. here's kwame holman. >> holman: the news on bs wasn't enough to lift wall street today. instead, stocks sank on worries that the costs of hurricane sandy will eat into profits. the dow jones in

. and the 2000s which he did not mention when george bush followed the policies very similar to what mitt romney is proposing, theyic if one or e other is elected. >> right. you know, i was in the white house for a while and i used to joke, i crawled all around in the basement, i have yet to find that switch down there that you just flip it and then everything gets better. i think 90 plus percent of what happens in a growing economy has nothing to do with washington. what the president and what washington in general can do is try to set the stage and set a groundwork for policy at could encourage growth. and i think the shorter term that you are thinking about, the less can be done specifically by the president. so if you are asking over a one month or three month period, there's very little the president can do. if you start asking over a five year, ten year period, then the policy decisions they make can influence quite a lot the way things go. >> brown: and john taylor, brief last word on that? >> well, i think as we are talking about four years what is going to happen the next four years. th

than what george bush ran on, george w. bush in 2000 and 2004 and i don't know that voter are saying that is the same old plan. i know president had suggested that, but i think what he's talking about is far different in terms of turning the economy around. i don't think voters are necessarily making -- >> the polls don't show. that polls show that voters, women and men blame the hole we got in to on george bush, you can't get away from that. >> you don't hear any talk about it between the two candidates. >> actually i do hear it. >> voters are smarters than most of the pollsters i have to say. they understand that it's not one man or one -- >> that's what that he say to the pollsters. i don't think you can avoid that. the reason i think the economy has -- as much as it should that he has made no definitive case for why he would be better. his so-called plan still leaves the very richest getting the very most. everybody knows that. he hasn't in fact come forward with something that really separates him from the bush years. >> i disagree with the whole recommend takes we're not hearin

the presidencies of bill clinton and george w. bush. dan balz of "the washington post" is author of a narrative of the 2008 campaign. and michael duffy of "time magazine" is author of a book about the world's most exclusive fraternity. the name of that book is "the presidents club." michael duffy as these presidents go from being campaigners to being presidents, how are they transformed? >> you know we asked a couple of the presidents who are still alive what they remember the big surprise or the big shock being when they finally stepped from being candidate into the oval office. and they say three things. one is the speed of the decisions come much faster. and unpredictably. they can't control the agenda. the second is, they're all hard. there are no easy ones and they all are fairly outspoken about just how difficult the choices are. basically there are downsides everywhere. and the third thing is that's a little more interesting. just because you make the decision doesn't mean anything happens. when ike took over from truman, truman said "poor ike, he'll think it's just like the army. do thi

, george bush when in transition to the white house. so, you know, it's got lots and lots of history going on there. it's also prime position in d.c. it's only five blocks from the white house. jfk attended the opening in 1963. it cost 179 dlsh a night. >> let's go west coast. san francisco. what presidents have stayed at the fairmont hotel? >> the fairmont is the first fairmont, actually. opened in 1906. it's on knob hill. it's a prime, prime position. it's where the u.n. charter was drafted in 1945. so also all sorts of hist think. go across the tram and go to alcatraz. you know how much i love napa. it's a two hour drive away. >> and what's the price point? >> that's $279 a night. >> let's go to houston, texas, a hotel called the huse tonian. and i'm sure this is a favorite of the bush family as if they needed a place to stay in texas. >> of course, it is. it's a bush home from home, if you like. it's like a country club in the city of you might bump into george bush sr. at the manner restaurant or barbara bush in the spa. there is also an enormous activity center, 25,000 square foot. t

the nation in most bars per capita and in most bush/obama counties, that is, people who voted for george bush in 2004 and then barack obama in 2008. they really vote the candidate, not the party. how many cows do you have total? >> 820 cows. >> reporter: wow. hello, girls. so, yes, it is easy to find conservative dairy farmers upstate, like dan brick. do you get subsidies from the government? >> yeah, very little subsidies. my thought is, i wish they would eliminate all subsidies altogether. part of it is just because the government is broke. >> oh, my goodness. >> reporter: but if you wander up to hallowed lambeau field on a sunday morning and if you hang out with the most sophisticated tailgate partiers in the world you'll find all stripes. conservatives, liberals, socialists, many of them either related or best friends for life. >> romney is a successful man and -- >> can't say obama's not. >> successful politician. >> you can't say obama's not. >> what did he do in the business world? >> he's written multiple books. he's made a -- >> he made himself money, yes. what did romney do? >> he m

. if this was george bush the media would be screaming bloody murder. listen to the people suffering in the northeast tonight. >> fed up. fed up. this line. that line. what are we? is this america? >> we are here for you. and we will not forget. we will follow up to make sure that you get all of the help that you need until you have rebuilt. >> we have no food. >> people trapped in here still. >> we pledge to h help those whose lives have been turned upside down. >> don't have anything, anywhere to go. i don't have no clothes. >> people here are still working. they are still looking for people. it's craze. >> we look out for one another and we don't leave anybody behind. >> nothing has been done here. >> where are you going go? you have no gas and no nothing. >> 22 years in my home and i lost it. >> and you have people saying i'm going to die. i'm going to guy. i wish i had the audio but i don't. >> sean hannity i would say that the same federal government that controls fema that can't preposition gasoline trucks near service station and preposition bottles and mres is the same federal government tha

press secretary under president george w. bush. hello to both of you. >> your setup there looks fantastic. democracy plaza looks great. >> i wish you were here to see it. they have been working so hard on this. i could go on an on. we have details to get to. people ice skating. it's just cool. but let's talk about a couple of different ideas here, karen, with you. two respected political analysts have widely divergent predictions for the election. nate silver gives the president an 84% chance of winning and says he'll get 305 electoral votes. flip side mitt romney will be winning with 315 electoral votes. does anyone know what's going to happen? >> no, of course not. this is why i love politics. and this is why i love the pollsters. they try to apply science and data that predict. we're talk about human beings. and human behavior is unpredictable. we can have a sense of what we think is going to happen. the numbers i've been looking at are some of the early vote numbers. for example if you look at some of of these battle ground states and the number of people who have already vo

is the same thing that actually was practiced in the george w. bush administration. president obama isn't using george w. bush's name, but the message is actually pretty crystal clear. and you're seeing these two competing closing arguments at the very end. >> with that being the argument from the president that, you know, especially before hurricane sandy it was when mitt romney unveiled this notion that he is the change candidate here, how has his campaign, or have they effectively fought back that what he is offering back at this late game, 3, 2, 1, what we is a at the bottom, he offering anything that proves he would in fact bring in change? >> well, he hasn't rebutted those criticisms of how his policies are different than george w. bush's. the one he has pointed out, and he did this at the debate is he would actually balance the budget, something that george w. bush didn't do. so that's where he says he would be different. but when you actually look at a lot of the advisers, a lot of the economic policies, they do seem the same. and he hasn't really rebutted that. but what he is a

romney has adopted policies that are unfortunately to the right of where george bush was on tax policy. he is a more conservative tax policy at this point than george bush did. so that's the choice that people face. it is true. i think people should vote on issues like choice because the reason why we have women engaged so much in this election, is because republicans made issues like contraception controversial. young women who have not been motivated to vote are voting, because they never thought birth control would be a political issue. that happened because republicans attacked it, not democrats. >> i absolutely agree with you on why women matter. that's why we are doing a whole special at 6:00 tonight on exactly this issue of why women matter. coming up, the slow and steady comeback of the u.s. economy. there is some undeniable evidence that there is a roux he coverry. is it enough? what is next? that's what we come back. [ male announcer ] do you have the legal protection you need? at legalzoom, we've created a better place to turn for your legal matters. maybe you want to incorp

when george bush did it, and the report went through statistics of many decades of data that would verify what anybody would know if they looked at it. >> jennifer: somebody called it the banana republic, that they were pressured to sit on the report. do you think there is some political shenanigans happening? the nonpartisan folks won't release the report? >> well, the way i heard it was that some of the republican congressional leadership rejected to the regression methodology. so i'm not sure about that. i think it probably was not what they considered the oppertune moment, i feel that's why they pull it down. >> jennifer: i'm shocked. i'm sure you are, too. gentlemen, thank you some for coming inside "the war room." this is the most important last data point before the election. up next, if president obama wins the electoral vote but loses the national vote, are we going to be celebrating tuesday the one time it's okay for you to miss my show is if that's the only time you can get to a polling place. make sure that voting is your highest priority on election day. besides, you c

with resistance by republicans. contrast that to george w. bush. his major initiatives, war in iraq, medicare part d and no child left behind had substantial democratic support. in no child left behind, the leading liberal in the senate ted kennedy joining with president bush to push no child left behind. contrast that to the way the republicans treated barack obama and you see the total hypocrisy of that claim. >> governor, philadelphia aside obama's biggest drop off has been among middle to upper class suburban women. why do you think that is? you know the state. >> because the economy is not doing well. pennsylvania's economy has taken a nose dive since i left. when i left -- well truth is truth. when i left we were 7.4% unemployment, almost two points below the national average. we're now above the national average by a third of a point. so, it's significant. but the economy has not done well and suburban women are conscious of the economy. you'll know right away in pennsylvania, you don't have to look far to see whether this will be a close race. just look at the turnout in philadelphia. if t

economy collapsed in iowa and iowa took it out on george bush sr. we might see the opposite where the economy is weak in a lot of places but stronger in iowa. >> iowa voted for revenge. interesting. >> great reason to vote. >> to your point that's why the social consciences that's why mike huckabee and rick santorum do well in iowa. i don't think obama or romney are well suited to iowa. did i just say ohio? i meant iowa. >> iowa. >> anyway, i don't think eat of those candidates are particularly well suited because there's a strong populace strain in iowa politics. i ultimately do have it going blue if you look at the polls. romney has never led in iowa, interestingly even though as you pointsed out the democrats held a slight advantage in voting in registration numbers in 2008. they are turning out the same number in terms of early votes. they have a 60,000 vote advantage this year at this time versus in 2008 which is the same. so i think ultimately it is going to go to president obama. >> i have it going red but, again, i think we put up that chart of presidential voting history

an economy that is still on the mend. >> i am certainly not going to defend george w. bush's debt. but now it is $16 trillion in the reach that point under obama. reductions in spending, there are reductions on the rate of growth. certainly for all the picking we do on greece and italy and spain, they have actually spent a little less year-over-year than they have before. the status came from, california, has managed to do a little bit, too. those are all steps in the right direction. we are only going to get there through cutting spending in the united states. 75% tax rates, history has shown, again and again, going back to the first deficit that hoover ran during the great depression when as history has forgotten, began the process of franklin roosevelt continuing deficit spending in order to take up the slack in aggregate demand. you never reduce your debt that way. the tax increases do not reduce the debt. the new money that comes in that is spent on new programs that get created, those programs perpetuate themselves and they require new spending and new borrowing. cutting spending is

when george bush wasli paying out money -- >> medicare prescription drug program. >> the country rejected the republican party when they did it, and they shouldn't when owe palm does worse. >> a little -- obama does worth. >> a d little late. >> issue 3, obama on lateight. >> on october 1, president obama sat down with late nighwidaily show host jon stewart. mr. stewart questioned the president, about the event at the u.s. consulate in nibenghazi libya on september 11, when four americans were killed, including ambassador christopher stevens. >> other people were -- >> the truth is, infoation comes in, folks put it out thought the process, people , sy it's still incomplete. what i was up clear is we're going to do an investigation and figure out what happened.sa >> as part of the investigation, is it helping the communication between the divisions of, not just what happened in benghazi, but what happened within? i don't know, i would say even you wod admit, it was not the optimal response, at least to the american people as far as us being on the same page. >> here's what i'll sa

into a 2004 nail biter. look at the polls in ohio, today barack obama is almost exactly where george w. bush was in the polls in ohio 8 years ago. look at the job approval ratings, barack obama's job approval rating is almost exactly where george w. bush's approval rating is. the only thing looking better for romney at this point is obama is worse off in the polls. george w. bush had a 1.5 percentage-point lead going into election day and right now it is even. >> greta: rick what is the best thing politically that governor romney is looking at right now, when looks at this and what is the best thing politically president obama is looking at when they look at what is winding down between now and tuesday? >> romney looks at the number among independents and also looks at the possibility of building this national lead and i think closing on the economy. closing with what works for him in terms of making the argument he is the candidate of change. he has to hope for a big weekend to turn things around a little bit in terms of the close and i think president obama has to feel good about how thing

palin came here and didn't work out. you go out, george w. bush tried it and bob dole in '96. no republican has been successful since 1988 here in pennsylvania. we're going to keep our eyes on pennsylvania today with paul ryan and tomorrow when mitt romney comes through and i guess we'll find out on tuesday who was right. randi. >> we certainly will. hopefully we'll find out on tuesday the way this is going. >> yes, good point. >> paul steinhauser, thank you very much. >>> much more ahead this hour. >> here's what's coming up. >>> sandy has brought devastation across the northeast, but it may also have been the october surprise. we have the latest on the recovery efforts and sandy's impact on the election. >>> battleground wisconsin. three days left and now it's all about the ground game. we'll take you to one of the contentious swing states. >> i'll tired of both obama and mitt romney. >>> she can't vote, but she's already crying about the election. find out why this toddler just can't take it any more. hmm, it says here that cheerios helps lower cholesterol as part of a hea

pennsylvania in a presidential election? 1988. george herbert walker bush, it's been a while. but what's going on here? paul ryan, as you mentioned, he's coming right here to harrisbu harrisburg, that's why we're here. on the flip side, it seems that the obama campaign now putting some surrogates here. jill biden, the wife of the vice president will be here in pennsylvania later today, as well. guess what, former president bill clinton coming to pennsylvania to campaign on monday. you turn on the tvs here, randi, all you see are campaign commercials. i saw a ton in the local news. 10 million in the final days and the romney campaign is outspending the obama campaign two to one here in pennsylvania. 20 electoral votes at stake. here is the latest poll in pennsylvania. franklin and marshal, a four-point advantage for the president. very tight. that's within the sampling error. the president used to have a double-digit lead in pennsylvania. now it's getting crowded. randi, the obama campaign says this is a sign of desperation by the romney campaign that they can't win in wisconsin, ohio and that'

? 50% feel positive. these are the numbers in the same nbc poll from eight years ago when george w. bush won 50 .7% of the vote. that is the parallel of this election. 2004, 2012, incumbent, beleaguered, a close election, ohio decided. -- ohio is at the epicenter today. and that is the story from washington. [laughter] >> thus spaketh -- there is the benediction. >> things are a lot shakier now than they were then, i think that people sense that. how bad does the crisis have to be before congress' response? the wall street crash, going over the cliff? >> romney's numbers on the economy are still better than his. >> slightly. >> the senate -- is it going to go republican, state democratic? >> stay democratic barely. anybody disagree with me? >> kaine and george allen in virginia, who is going to win? >> kaine. >> kaine. >> kaine. >> kaine. that is 8 for kaine. >> massachusetts -- elizabeth warren r. scott brown? >> warren. >> i think warren. >> sharon brown and lh. >> casey in pennsylvania. >> kerrey in nebraska, which nobody would have predicted -- >> kerrey the democrat. medal of

you are not getting my $4.99. sometimes this can be good press. one thing that george bush did in 2004. he wrote a letter to my daughters and published in "glamour." just his words. such a good thing. if you control it, good opportunities. you can't control it. >> dana: they ask all the questions are loaded with hypocrisy. >> greg: remember when abe lincoln did "cosmo." >> bob: what is a mistake that was. can i borrow that magazine when i get my nails done? >> andrea: get a pedicure together? >> bob: i don't know what those are. your feet? man, that is disgusting. >> greg: coming up, five minutes, five political stories you can't live without. speaking of things you can't live without, i'll be back soon. this is hayden. he's five years old. that's elizabeth. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses sacramento and sends every k through 12 dollar straight to our loca

wilson has all the wrong priorities. you voted for the wall street bailout and the george bush tax cuts that exploded our deficit and now she wants even more tax breaks for millionaires. she supports 0 program called pat cap and balance that would require deep cuts to social security and medicare. i will never balance the budget on the backs of our seniors. medicare and social security argentine went. they're a promise we made to our seniors and a promise i intend to keep. i come home every weekend to meet with new mexicans, old job fairs, raise my family. i am always fought for the things that matter most to the people of the state and if you send me to the united states senate i will continue that fight and be honored to have your support. >> moderator: representative will some. it could 21 i see an opportunity society opposite safety net. i support social security and medicare and the safety net programs my own family depended on when i was a child and my father was killed unexpectedly. those unexpected events are what the safety net programs are for. congressman martin heinrich has

be up to super lawyers like ted olson to go to court. he led republicans to victory between george bush and al gore. >> i'm clearing my calendar. >> reporter: he says if election officials want to avoid litigation, they shouldn't change direction in the middle of the game. >> if you follow the rules that were in place on election day with respect to counting the ballots, then the presumptive outcome will be expected. >> but the truth is there could be other changes to the rules, especially as states affected by the storm get ready for the election. we'll be looking for them as i am sure lawyers well as will. >> the president is now speaking in dubuque, iowa. he's really getting into his speech. let's listen in. >> it's a choice between going back to the top-down economics that crashed our economy, or embracing a future where we're building a strong and growing middle class. you know, as americans, we honor the striefrs and the dreamers, the entrepreneurs, the free enterprise system is the greatest engine of prosperity that the world has ever known. but we also know that our markets work

salon so you are not getting my $4.99. sometimes this can be good press. one thing that george bush did in 2004. he wrote a letter to my daughters and published in "glamour." just his words. such a good thing. if you control it, good opportunities. you can't control it. >> dana: they ask all the questions are loaded with hypocrisy. >> greg: remember when abe lincoln did "cosmo." >> bob: what is a mistake that was. can i borrow that magazine when i get my nails done? >> andrea: get a pedicure together? >> bob: i don't know what those are. your feet? man, that is disgusting. >> greg: coming up, five minutes, five political stories you can't live without. speaking of things you can't live without, i'll be back soon. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> bob: i never heard that song. who did that? >> greg: billy joel. >> bob: good for billy joel. lightning round in politics. we started this and we like it. start with eric. >> eric: president obama did it again. went to the well. listen to him in ohio. >> i understand that governor romney has had a tough time in ohio because he was against saving the auto indu

. among those photographed are george w. bush abdul michael dukakis and richard depp -- gephardt. and encore presentation of books now.a c-span: arthur grace you have a new book out called "choose me" portraits of a presidential198 race."7ou where did you get this idea? >> guest: well basically it was an idea that newsweek came up with in early 1987 around last january, early february. they wanted to do something different with the presidential candidates. portraits but not... they weren't sure what they wanted to do but just a different idea.y r so newsweek picture editor karen mclarkey approached me and saido do you have any ideas on this. what would you like to do? and i thought about it and i came up with this concept ofd i doing in black and white in a two and a quarter format without strobe lights, using only available or natural light. and we tried it out first witht gary hart. we went out to -- i believe it s was cleveland early on in february of 1987 and i had the first assignment out there.wa i came back and showed them the photographs and they were veryhe pleased with

the responsibility elsewhere. the economy, it's george bush's fault. benghazi, hillary clinton's fault. well, the buck stops with the president of the united states. he asked for the job. it's his responsibility to stay on top of it and he right now is not staying on top of this recovery. >> rupert murdoch has tweeted tonight that he thinks that governor christie should now publicly declare very loudly and clearly, redeclare his support for mitt romney given all the praise he's lavished on the president and if he doesn't, then he would bear the blame, according to mr. murdoch, for the next four years in barack obama gets in. what do you make of that? >> oh, i don't go that far at all. i think at the point at which chris christie was saying that it was all quite legitimate. i think president obama at the beginning of this did keep his concentration on this and i think he was entitled to what chris christie said about him. what i'm saying is in the last couple of days, he has been 100% devoted to running for office. he has taken his eye off the ball and in some parts of new york, some parts of

elected, so he doesn't count. jimmy carter from georgia, ronald reagan from california. the first george bush via connecticut. bill clinton from arkansas and the second question texas. so too does the natives and so ways a watershed election. it ends the 40 year. the sun belt dominance. their issues critical in the politics that developed that came out of the sun belt. they didn't have a conservative cast of them. they tended to be oriented about issues of strong national defense, and opposition to unions and a defense of free enterprise politics. and also is in the south and southwest that we see the rise at an 1870s when they come to talk about the religious right. the rise of evangelicals involved in the political process in new and important ways. so thurmond was at the forefront about this issues in his own politics. national defense, who is a staunch anti-communist and played a role in

by the way most people will remember voted in huge numbers for george bush in 2000. he received 35% of the hispanic vote in 2000. and in 2012 latinos no longer feel at home within the republican party of today. so barack obama, you can see it's a big part of his coalition. we'll be going out knocking on doors and doing everything he can to get the hispanic vote particularly in swing states. >> michael let's broaden this thing out a bit. there's a headline from politico that got my attention this morning. obama's demographic gamble, quote obama is likely to get blown out among white voters on election day narrowly lose independents nationwide and yet may still win based on historic margins among groups that off ten lean democratic but don't vote in high waits. latin jobs african-american, young people and unmarried women as well. do you see this unfolding come tuesday? >> it's always between case as last time around obama never won the majority of white voters here but he won a significant enough margin in combination with latinos, with african-americans, of course, overwhelmingly v

george w. bush would give the keynote speech at a conference in the cayman islands, one of the offshore tax havens where mitt romney has invested millions of dollars. not ideal timing for the campaign of romney. the event went on as planned yesterday, but don't expect any kind of review of w.'s speech. according to nbc, quote, the keynote speech by the former president was totally closed to all journalists, and conference organizers were banned from discussing any aspect of it. an event spokesman said the restrictions were imposed by the former president's own staff. there you have it. any advice the former president had for investing money in offshore tax havens was reserved for the people who paid $4,000 to attend the conference. by the way, "the miami herald" posted the ap's account of w's speech on their website. there's no mention of mitt romney in the piece, but check out the similar stories bar next to the piece. topics like mitt romney's tax return fails to quiet critics and mitt romney and the 47%. i guess it could have been worse. that's "hardball" for now. coming up next, you

related to how they perceived their significance. so, for example, george bush actually allocated michael brown who was the former -- i just had to read this out, because i was just blown away. michael brown who was the former commissioner of judges and stewards for the international arabian horse association, that's who headed fema. clinton was the first -- was the first president to allocate the fema head who actually had experience -- >> disaster. >> -- disaster management. it's not political. it's about poverty. it's about race. and when we think about disaster preparedness as well as recovery, the ways in which these two americas break down, you see that again and again and again. >> it's also i think the other point here is that it's something that will happen i think often is people on the left we get into this defensive crouch around the role of government and so we defend the states' actions in the abstract, but if you talk to lefty activist who are part of common ground and katrina it was government bureaucracy who was their enemy. and folks on staten island are frustrated and a

the same amount of people looking for work as when george bush was president. left presidency, we would have a 10.6 unemployment rate. it's far worse than it looks. >> gretchen: what about this u 6 unemployment rate being 14.6% for october. what's u 6? >> that is everyone who is looking for work part timers, all the people in the workforce rather than just eliminating a lot of people who simply stopped looking. the u-6 some people think it's the real unemployment rate. i mean, i don't think there is any perfect number to read this and we have always used u-3. u-6 i think tells you a little more these days about what's going on in the economy. >> gretchen: if you don't have a job it's 100% unemployment rate so it's all relative. >> that's right. >> gretchen: adjusted unemployment rate unemployment rate of labor force equal to january of 2009 when president obama came. in would actually be 10. a%, correct? >> i think 10.5, 10.6, yeah. very high. you have a bunch of people coming that the market every month that have to be met. i think it's 120,000. certainly it's just stagnation. last yea

prediction? >> absolutely. and frankly, a lot of analysts agree with that. if you look at what of george bush's own pollsters said when he was president and running was that no republican can actually get to the white house with at least 40% of the hispanic vote. this was in 2004. imagine that percentage has had to have gone up just a little bit given the expanded population of hispanic voters. and right now, you have mitt romney at less than 25% nationally, and less than 25% in each of the key swing states that had large hispanic populations. like nevada, like colorado, like florida. so i think they should be very worried when it comes to these battleground states, and even in ohio, where you have 166,000 registered latino voters going out to the polls, and an election this tight, they could absolutely be the deciding factor. i think it's going to be the october surprise of this election. >> i thought we already had one of those. >> early november. >> let me ask you, because we were asking our viewers before the break, if you could run the campaign in the last three days, what would you do i

, are that fema dropped the ball on this thing. he's in charge of fema. what happened to george bush during katrina. >> gregg, what is happening now is that obamaitis. four or five good political days notwithstanding the tragedy that hit the northeast and the midwest. bottom line, there are two days left. but the issues of libya, the economy, have been off the table benefitting president obama. >> gregg: there have been so many news stories, about maybe not enough, that the handling of this thing by the white house and the president is incompetent, the libyan issue. >> what they're doing now is putting out disinformation to cover up -- >> gregg: it's got to hurt the president. >> look at the fox poll. on his handling of the job of libya, he's got the worst rating than on the economy. let me finish my point. half the people are saying that they believe that they were covering up purposely. the prop problem is romney president republicans. they've never said -- so therefore, because they're not saying it, the main stream media has a reason they don't have to cover it. >> gregg: so you can tel

chief of staff to president george w. bush, kal rove. fox is a contributor. good to have you with us. you have said from the outset that this would be a tight race. did you really expected to be this tech??3 >> the -- tht is hard to say, but it will be tight. this will not be settled until the wee hours of wednesday morning. maybe sometime wednesday they will finish counting the ballots, but it will be very tight. lou: and in your most recent op-ed in the "wall street journal" you said it is all about the numbers. amongst the numbers you put a run the victory by two or three percentage points. are you updating that here tonight? are you still convinced of that margin? >> i still think i wll e close to that margin. i do think there was an impact on this race to my subtle impact. let's go beyond the polls. let's start looking at the actual turnout. the key for me is ohio. it. lou: all right. i love it. >> there we go. 547,000 democrats have voted early or cast an absentee ballot early or have requested an absentee ballots compared to 470,000 republicans. democrats traditionally out in

. romney won romney won. almost exactly what they did in in 2000 with george w. bush. >> that's what it seems like. they're setting the stage. they're trying to change the public perception so they think of course, romney has it in the bag. as soon as it's a close race they can ask for a recount and then we see the same situation that we saw with bush and gore. >> cenk: they're trying to say if it's a tie which seems so implausible, except it happened in 2000, then justice is on romney's side because romney was supposed to win. >> he's just doing his job. no one will have egg on their face when their candidate loses because they're supposed to think that their candidate is going to win. >> cenk: of course fox news did it, and then newt gringrich, of course famous predictor saying romney is going to get 300 electoral votes. >> what is this based on? is it based on gut instinct. >> did you see what dick morris said today. he said, me meh maybe not. he was predicting a landslide for romney two days ago and now a caution comes from the latest harassrassmeson poll be. >> you know how i fe

before the election in 2008 and he lost. the same plan and same result for george w. bush in 2004 and bob dole in 1996. >>> let's check out florida and that's where we find, long, long lines. some people waited in line as long as five hours to cast their early vote. today is the last day for early voting. we'll take you live to florida next hour. how close is the race there? take a look. this poll shows president obama with a slim slelead, 49-47. >>> both campaigns are finding some talking points to drive home their closing arguments. here it is. unemployment ticked up to 7.9% while the economy added 171,000 jobs in october. that's more than most expected. earlier, i spoke with bill gross who runs the world's biggest mutual fund pinco if these numbers are enough to move voters and the markets. >> i'm not sure it is, victor. actually, the election may hinge on the length of gas lines in new jersey and new york on monday as opposed to the number of jobs announced on friday. in any case, the job creation number is sufficient going forward to certainly level the unemployment rate and, ultimat

in libya, which is very unusual remark okay, so would you have reported the iraq war if george w. bush had picked the right side. >> was a reason beyond,. >> it was very clear that the people of iraq want to overthrow their leader. and you had hoped to do it. and he went to the u.n. to get that help. >> it was much more precarious situation. if you have a situation where the vast majority of the people and you had u.n. backing and there is no way it could be the u.s. alone, imperialistic attack to try to scoop up resources for yourself. >> hearing the talk, i have seen this movie before. saying that they will pick legitimate people within the country to do that -- tom friedman back it up, please. i saw. i saw the first time. you guys were all in school at the time. let's just let things happen the way they are going to happen. what other people worry about their own country. we have not problems in this country. >> jim, did you have anything to say? >> yes, i do have one question i can ask, it was george w. bush who wanted to do the libyan intervention, would you have supported it then? >>

in balance. -- imbalance. george's approach is to close it as follows. make all the bush tax cut permanent, even for the wealthiest. now it is getting bigger. then, close the tax all through cuts. if you have to have that big a gap, you will cut deeply into priorities that matter. i have a different approach. let the books -- pushed tax cuts expire. -- bush tax cuts expire. if you do that, you start to close the deductions. i had to do that as governor. i am the only governor in modern times to leave office with a smaller general fund budget and when i started. george's budget went up 45% in four years. i know how to make cuts. an all-cuts approach as he proposes, he said not $1 of revenue for $10 of cuts, the all-cuts approach that starts with extending tax cut for the wealthiest would hurt our economy, heard our priorities, and hurt virginia. >> just to make it clear, we ought to reform the entire tax code in washington. the bush tax cuts helped to create over 7 million new jobs. what i would like to see is a tax code that is more simple. i think there really is the basis of a bipartisan

campaign that he claims continues to blame president george w. bush for any of america's challenges at this time. right now the campaign remains confident. they think this think will be down to the wire. they say it shows a different story than some of the public polls, and they feel very strongly they're going to win this on tuesday. that's the latest. back to you. >> all right, i'll take it. coming up in just a few minutes, hard ball's chris matthews. we're going to ask him if something unexpected is going on in pennsylvania. and could that change the race? well he should know because he is from the keystone state. that is just ahead for you. >>> let's get the latest on the devastation left by hurricane sandy. this morning federal and local officials will update the president on the government's storm response. right now, the power is back on in thousands of more homes. but more than 2.9 million customers are still without power across six states, most of them in new jersey. repair crews are coming to the region from across the country. the death toll from sandy is rising, sadly.

. governor george w. bush won. based on that, we urge vice president gore to accept the finality of this. where others fail, droid powers through. introducing the new droid razr maxx hd by motorola. now more than ever droid does. the capability of a pathfinder with the comfort of a sedan and create a next-gen s.u.v. with best-in-class fuel economy of 26 miles per gallon, highway, and best-in-class passenger roominess? yeah, that would be cool. introducing the all-new nissan pathfinder. it's our most innovative pathfinder ever. nissan. innovation that excites. ♪ [ male announcer ] the rhythm of life. [ whistle blowing ] where do you hear that beat? campbell's healthy request soup lets you hear it... in your heart. [ basketball bouncing ] heart healthy. great taste. mmm... [ male announcer ] sounds good. it's amazing what soup can do. >> arthel: new concerns about possible voter registration fraud in the critical battle ground state of ho o. allegations that workers for a firm hire to do register voters may have forged signatures. it's the same allegation that acorn faced in the 2008 pre

than under george w. bush in eight years? >> yes. >> and mitt romney wants to take us back. so i can't even envision a romney presidency, but you're absolutely right. the supreme court is critical. everything that, you know, our constitution protects for us is at stake. >> let me bring in karen here. karen, i know that part of what president obama has done so beautifully is to make this argument that senator boxer is making there, the reproductive rights are economic rights, they are pocket book issues. >> that's absolutely right. i serve on the board of pro choice america. one of the things i know, the senator knows this, we found out about a year ago and gallup found it as women, ell, in battleground states, high percent sage of women, access to abortion care is higher than the economy, higher than jobs because women understand, again, that if you don't have access to birth control, if you don't have access to abortion care, those are sort of gate issues to other things. that means -- they pacts your ability to work outside the home, to care for your family. and the president has -

blackout. last month i told you a few days before the election george w. bush would give the keynote speech at a conference in the cayman islands, one of the offshore tax havens where mitt romney has invested millions of dollars. not ideal timing for the campaign of romney. the event went on as planned yesterday, but don't expect any kind of review of w.'s speech. according to nbc, quote, the keynote speech by the former president was totally closed to all journalists, and conference organizers were banned from discussing any aspect of it. the restrictions were imposed by the former president's own staff. there you have it. any advice the former president had for investing money in offshore tax havens was reserved for the people who paid $4,000 to attend the conference. by the way, "the miami herald" posted the ap's account of w's speech on their website. there's no mention of mitt romney in the piece, but check out the similar stories bar next to the piece. topics like mitt romney's tax return fails to quiet critics and mitt romney and the 47%. i guess it could have been worse. >>> up next

, you go back to george w. bush and it wasn't policies he put forward. it was the congress. the congress has put forward a number of policies. in fact, the house of representatives has passed no taxpayer funding of abortion measure. it's died in the senate. i think if we see a change in the senate we have folks like todd akin and richard murdock elected it will pass the senate and go to mitt romney and i fully expect that he would sign a measure that would lannd on his desked. in many ways the president is more of the cheerleader for the country and helps facilitate these measures that come up through the people's representatives in congress in particular the house of representatives. and i think that's the way it should be. so i'm not necessarily looking for mitt romney as president to go into advance a set of policies. we have these policies coming up. they're being blocked in the senate by senator reid. but now if we see a change in the senate they will get to the white house and the president and i fully expect that mitt romney as president will support a number of measures including

'm a big supporter of george w. bush. he would be surprised to see that since i campaigned for john kerry. it is a couple of republican operatives in atlanta who are sending misleading fliers to democrats in maine, trying to get into vote for cynthia. it is ridiculous. only residents of the place you are running should contribute. if you're running for senate in maine, only people in maine could contribute. >> democracy have representation. that led to the birth of our country. it was not about corporations. it is not about karl rove. it was about representation. one of our most special freedoms. terrible decisions, a super pacs bad. people talk about big government being bad. my experience is the political industrial complex that is just as insidious both here in maine and nationally. i do think we need to get back to the principle that when people want to run for office they should be able to have a straight dialogue with the electorate. they should be able to say who's a lot for me. people should not come in from atlanta saying do not vote for angus king or cynthia. that should not be

in the tidewater region. you can see it is compared with 2004 when george w. bush won the state. you can see that president bush won more of the tidewater region than did john mccain in 2008. if you were president obama and you were mitt romney, where would you focus your resources, larry? guest: you can tell by where they are visiting. romney spends a lot of time in the richmond area. he needs a big vote out of those localities, some of which voted for president obama. other various conservative localities like chesterfield county went as high as 45% for president obama in 2008. there's no way for republicans to win statewide and allow centreville to get 45% of the votes to obama. they're both campaigning in northern virginia. it is the linchpin of a statewide victory for president obama. he needs to do well in the big, growing burgeoning prince george county and loudoun county, as well as fairfax. yes, the two areas are small, but trees and rocks and acres don't vote, at least in most states and localities. host: what kind of the voting system is used in virginia? guest: the computerized s

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